The fact that Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike brought the next president of Nigeria and a previous president of Nigeria to London for decisive meetings last week, accompanied by his political allies, is a reflection of his current political influence.
Bredda Bola Tinubu, the All-Progressives Congress’ (APC) presidential candidate, was the first person he met. Tinubu left for London to attend a meeting with Bredda Wike and his allies after being unable or unable to personally accept the invitation offered to him by the influential Nigerian Bar Association to address their Annual Conference being held in Lagos, Tinubu’s neighborhood. What political agreement, if any, was made at that meeting is unknown.
The next day, the politically respected former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo was in London to personally hand over his adopted son, the Labor Party’s presidential candidate Bredda Peter Obi’s hand in political marriage to Wike. Whether Wike accepted or will accept the marriage offer is yet to be seen.
Sensing danger, the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate, Bredda Atiku Abubakar abandoned everything else and hurriedly flew to London for his own sit-down with Wike that same evening.
Recall that Atiku Abubakar and Nyesom Wike were co-contestants for the PDP presidential ticket a few months back. It was a contest that ended with bitter taste in Wike’s mouth. Just as Governor Wike was coasting to victory armed with his humongous financial war-chest a.k.a. as logistics, he unexpectedly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory when his erstwhile close ally, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto in a brazen fit of Fulani collusion, stepped down at the last minute and pledged his delegates to Atiku Abubakar.
Wike was yet to recover from what he saw as a Brutus stab from his erstwhile ally Aminu Tambuwal, when Atiku Abubakar personally dealt him the fatal coup de grace by imperiously overlooking him for the consolatory position of Vice-President in favor of the Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa. To rub salt in the wound, Atiku’s allies rushed to the press to justify why the rambunctious Wike never deserved either the PDP’s Presidential or Vice-Presidential tickets, under any circumstances.
That was the background setting that led to Wike openly flirting with other political parties especially the APC and the Labor Party. Atiku’s hurriedly arranged sit-down with Wike was therefore aimed at mending fences.
When the Wike group came back from London, Wike disclosed that his three sit-downs with the APC, Labor Party, and PDP presidential candidates was to “discuss how to make Nigeria better than what it is currently.”
Ha ha, ha. Wike our rambunctious bredrin must believe he is dealing with fools in Nigeria. Must he go-to London for sit-downs with the top three presidential candidates to decide how to make Nigeria better? Why can’t those sit-downs be held in Nigeria?
My sense is that he did not want leaks. He wanted to be outside the range of the Nigerian security services’ electronic listening devices. Without evidence, I and I want to believe that Wike himself hosted all three sit-downs or that they were held at neutral venues agreed upon at the very last minute. I and I would also want to believe that all parties to all three sit-downs came prepared and wired with recording devices. Truth be told and without prejudice to his integrity, our bredrin Nyesom Wike was only exploring how to make himself and his allies relevant post 2023 elections.
Let us break it down like this. Wike is only going to back that candidate among the top three who has the best odds by his calculation, of winning the elections and becoming the President of Nigeria. Just as the top three are courting him, Wike is assessing their respective chances of winning. In my assessment, Wike is not going to back a loser, even if that candidate is best poised to make Nigeria a better place.
So, if there is no breakout candidate, Wike is going to play all three candidates like a randy lad or promiscuous lass, until a clear front runner emerges. Then and only then will he state his demands to that breakout candidate and put his fingers on the scale to tip it decisively in that candidate’s favor
There is little patriotism here, but greater opportunism.
That is the way it is for politicians.
I and I was a little bit surprised therefore to read the demands that Wike made to Atiku in the papers. So, given I and I’s hypothesis above, does Wike consider Atiku to be the most likely of the three main contestants to become the next President of Nigeria? Before proposing an answer, it is pertinent to recall that the substance of Wike’s negotiations with Atiku were the first to be leaked among the three sit-downs. That is neither agood sign nor good omen for Atiku.
The Wike group’s three main demands appear to be, first, the voluntary resignation of Iyorchia Ayu an Atiku acolyte as PDP Chairman. Second, his replacement by an acting Chairman from the South-West, and third, an undertaking from Atiku that he would spend only one term in office as president if elected. Atiku’s counter demand, allegedly, was that Wike should support his candidacy wholeheartedly especially in the crucial area of “logistics.”
Assuming the authenticity of these leaks, it is safe to surmise that the Wike group have placed Atiku Abubakar on a tightrope. They have put a noose around his presidential ambition. These are serious demands.
Yield to all three of them and Atiku will appear even more desperate for power than he already is. Caving in would antagonize his core supporters and dampen enthusiasm about his candidacy among voters who already perceive him as being overly desperate for power.
Break anyone of the conditions and the Wike group would walk away from the deal, and more importantly deny Atiku access to funding a.k.a. logistics, for the PDP structure. Clearly PDP Vice Presidential candidate, Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, acting alone through the Delta State Treasury cannot provide all the logistics needed to oil the PDP structure.
Nyesom Wike I would want to believe, realizes that once Atiku wins, his group would be at Atiku’s mercy, with no bargaining chip to hold onto, and nothing else to appeal to.
My sense is that nothing will come out of this purported deal between Atiku and Wike. It will collapse like the recent Labor Party and NNPP merger talks. Given his lifelong ambition, I and I believes that Atiku made a strategic mistake and shot himself in the foot by not accepting Nyesom Wike as his running mate.
The only way Atiku can salvage the situation and turn things around for the PDP is to convince Governor Ifeanyi Okowa to voluntarily resign from the PDP presidential ticket. But even that concession would also make Atiku appear weak, bumbling, and even more desperate than he already is. So, all in all, I and I would be incredibly surprised if anything tangible comes out of the Atiku-Wike deal.
The situation Atiku and Wike find themselves, reminds I and I of a fabled but true story. A loose man allegedly impregnated an equally loose lass but dragged his feet about marrying her. The exasperated girl’s father, eager to permanently transfer his overarching feminine burden proceeding from his own loins for good, would have none of it.
“O**u dinma olila, dikwu nma onunu,” the lass’s father famously declared, “A female body part that is good for ravishing without protection, should equally be good for retention without expulsion.”
You must ask yourself why are the three main parties falling over themselves to lure Governor Nyesom Wike over to their side? Given a free and fair election, how many votes can Wike bring to the table? One million? Two million? Three million votes? Is Wike the only political powerhouse able to guarantee such quantum of votes in Nigeria? Why are the parties not so desperate to lure other power brokers with similar capacity?
The answer is that no one else in Nigeria besides the President of Nigeria, has more financial logistics at his disposal than Governor Wike. Without prejudice, and without alleging anything, Wike’s seat is in Port Harcourt, the headquarters of bunkering in Nigeria. That is Wike’s strength, which is also Nigeria’s tragedy.
Look, Peter Obi’s current tour of Europe, Canada, and America is actually a fund-raising drive for foreign financial logistics, to fund the Obidients’ structure. Forget about the lame talk about “addressing” Nigerians in the Diaspora.
If Nigerians are to be real to themselves, the same or similar thing that disqualified Governor Nyesom Wike from becoming either the PDP presidential candidate or vice-presidential candidate, should equally disqualify Atiku Abubakar from becoming the next President of Nigeria.
If the PDP finds Wike’s logistics so attractive, they should bring Wike on board the PDP ticket as vice-presidential candidate for keeps. This is another way of saying that Atiku and the PDP should do the right thing by Wike now, or forget him for good.Time is ticking for the PDP.
Anthony Chuka Konwea, Ph.D., P.E., M.ASCE, MNSE, FNIStructE, MNICE.
SOURCE: [NigeriaVoice]
